Imagine if you could predict a baseball player's future by looking at the past. Sounds like a fantasy, right? But what if I told you that history might hold the key to understanding Jackson Chourio’s potential? His 2025 season wasn’t exactly a letdown—despite a slow start, he wrapped up with a solid 112 OPS+ and between 2.2 to 2.9 WAR, all while manning center field, a position he wasn’t initially expected to handle. Yet, it’s fair to say he didn’t quite build on the scorching streak he ended his rookie year with in 2024, which is a bit of a letdown. Still, after a strong finish and a solid postseason, it’s clear that Chourio, who won’t turn 22 until March, is brimming with untapped potential. But here’s where it gets controversial: can we really use history to predict his future? And this is the part most people miss—the comparison to past legends might just reveal more than we think.
As Chourio wrapped up a historic age-20 season, I found myself wondering how his early success stacked up against the greats. Back in 2024, I wrote about how, since the expansion era began in 1961, only 24 position players as young as Chourio had earned three or more WAR in a single season (he finished with 3.8 via Baseball Reference and 3.9 via FanGraphs). Fast forward two years, and Chourio is still in elite company. I decided to update that story by examining what happened to players who were this good at such a young age. So, I compiled a list of all expansion-era players who accumulated six bWAR through their age-21 seasons—Chourio sits at exactly six. The list includes 18 players, and it’s a who’s who of baseball legends: Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, and more.
This list is nothing short of thrilling. Three players are already in the Hall of Fame (Griffey, Bench, Henderson), two are waiting for eligibility (Trout, Pujols), two are almost certain to join them (Soto, Harper), and several others are among the most exciting young talents in the game today (Acuña Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Tatis Jr.). Even Alex Rodriguez, despite his PED controversy, would’ve been a Hall of Famer. The only players on this list who didn’t retire with over 40 bWAR or aren’t on a solid path to greatness are Tony Conigliaro, whose career was tragically altered by an injury at 22, and Tom Brunansky, whose age-21 season was his peak.
Now, let’s dive into what these players did in their age-22 seasons. I’ve grouped them into four categories, with their age-22 WAR totals in parentheses.
Category One: Always Awesome
Players like Mike Trout (7.7 WAR), Alex Rodriguez (8.5 WAR), and Juan Soto (7.3 WAR) were consistently great from the start. Trout won his first MVP at 22, though his WAR totals were even higher in the previous two seasons. A-Rod, steroids aside, is one of the greatest ever. Soto, at 20, was a World Series hero and has been a superstar ever since. But here’s a thought-provoking question: does early greatness guarantee a Hall of Fame career, or are there exceptions that prove the rule?
Category Two: More Sporadic, but Mostly Successful
Bryce Harper (7.3 WAR) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (6.6 WAR) had ups and downs but still achieved greatness. Harper won an MVP at 22 with a 9.7 WAR season, but his career has been anything but linear. Tatis’s early promise was derailed by injuries and a PED suspension, yet he remains a solid offensive force. Is inconsistency a red flag, or just part of the journey for young stars?
Category Three: A Mostly Upward Trajectory
Ken Griffey Jr. (5.8 WAR) and Giancarlo Stanton (5.4 WAR) took a few years to reach their peak. Griffey didn’t become the fully realized version of himself until 23, while Stanton won an MVP at 27. Does this mean Chourio might still be years away from his prime, or is his path already set?
Category Four: The Early Peakers
César Cedeño (7.4 WAR) and Jason Heyward (5.5 WAR) had early success but couldn’t sustain it. Cedeño’s career took a downturn after a knee injury at 27, while Heyward’s bat never fully recovered after his early years. Is Chourio’s future more like Cedeño’s or Trout’s? The answer might surprise you.
So, what does all this mean for Chourio? While he took a step back in 2025, history shows that many greats—like A-Rod and Harper—also had setbacks early on. The bigger picture is clear: 15 out of 17 players on this list had or are having excellent careers. The only true cautionary tale is Tom Brunansky. Most of these players were already great at 20, which makes sense—you have to be exceptional to get that kind of opportunity at such a young age.
As fans, we might worry about Chourio’s lack of progress in 2025, but the data suggests he’s still on the cusp of stardom. Could he falter? Of course. But given the success of the players he’s grouped with, the odds are heavily in his favor. The real question is: will Chourio join the ranks of the all-time greats, or will he be the exception? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain—his journey will be fascinating to watch. What do you think? Is Chourio destined for greatness, or is there a chance he’ll fall short? Let’s debate in the comments!
